Iran War & Diplomacy Odds — Live Probabilities
Live prediction-market odds on Iran: military strikes, nuclear program milestones, sanctions snapback, regime stability, and leadership succession. After the June 2025 US and Israeli strikes on Natanz and Fordow, traders have kept Iran markets among the most active geopolitical contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi. This hub tracks whether new strikes occur, whether a nuclear deal gets signed, Khamenei succession scenarios, IRGC escalation in the Gulf, and shipping risk through the Strait of Hormuz — with prices updated continuously as headlines move.
Tracked markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
56%September 4
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
1%September 15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
<1%Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
26%September 30
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
<1%August 31
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
<1%Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
93%Leader: No Meeting by September 30
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
>99%July 31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
10%December 31
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
<1%US charges Hormuz fees by...?
4%December 31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
14%September 30
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- Iran nuclear test before 2027?
- Iran invades Kuwait by...?
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
- Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
- Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
- Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
- Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
- What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
- Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
- Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
- Iran Nuke before 2027?
- Iran leadership change by...?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?
- Iran closes its airspace by...?
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
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