Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Odds
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | June 30, 2026 | 6% | +1567 |
| J.D. Vance | June 30, 2026 | 55% | -121 |
| Steve Witkoff | June 30, 2026 | 39% | +156 |
| Marco Rubio | June 30, 2026 | 14% | +602 |
| Jared Kushner | June 30, 2026 | 49% | +104 |
- Implied
- 54.7%
- American
- -121
- Decimal
- 1.83
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 55% — roughly -121 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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