Iran Nuke before 2027? Odds
Iran Nuke before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
- Implied
- 5.6%
- American
- +1686
- Decimal
- 17.86
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Iran Nuke before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 6% — roughly +1686 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
Related markets
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?Geopolitics
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Geopolitics
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Geopolitics
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Geopolitics
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Geopolitics
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Geopolitics
Fee-free geopolitics markets. 18+.