GeoOdds

Iran leadership change by...? Odds

$21.0M total volume$64K 24hResolves by December 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
21%implied chance
0.0pp24h

Iran leadership change by December 31?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
July 31July 31, 2026<1%+11011
August 31August 31, 20265%+1920
September 30September 30, 202611%+852
December 31December 31, 202621%+388
June 30, 2027June 30, 202737%+170
Implied
20.5%
American
+388
Decimal
4.88
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Iran leadership change by...?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 21% — roughly +388 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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