Iran leadership change by...? Odds
Iran leadership change by December 31?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | October 1, 2026 | 2% | +4248 |
| October 31 | November 1, 2026 | 7% | +1438 |
| November 30 | December 1, 2026 | 9% | +1011 |
| December 31 | January 1, 2027 | 14% | +641 |
| June 30, 2027 | July 1, 2027 | 28% | +264 |
- Implied
- 13.5%
- American
- +641
- Decimal
- 7.41
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 14% — roughly +641 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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