US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? Odds
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | May 15, 2026 | 72% | -251 |
| June 15 | May 15, 2026 | 23% | +330 |
| July 31 | May 15, 2026 | 81% | -413 |
| June 13 | May 15, 2026 | 2% | +4662 |
| June 14 | May 15, 2026 | 21% | +388 |
| June 16 | June 16, 2026 | — | — |
| June 17 | June 17, 2026 | — | — |
| June 18 | June 18, 2026 | — | — |
| June 19 | June 19, 2026 | — | — |
| June 21 | June 21, 2026 | 60% | -147 |
- Implied
- 71.5%
- American
- -251
- Decimal
- 1.40
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 72% — roughly -251 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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