GeoOdds

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? Odds

$46.0M total volume$655K 24hResolves by April 30, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
72%implied chance
+38.5pp24h

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
June 30May 15, 202672%-251
June 15May 15, 202623%+330
July 31May 15, 202681%-413
June 13May 15, 20262%+4662
June 14May 15, 202621%+388
June 16June 16, 2026
June 17June 17, 2026
June 18June 18, 2026
June 19June 19, 2026
June 21June 21, 202660%-147
Implied
71.5%
American
-251
Decimal
1.40
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 72% — roughly -251 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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