Venezuela Transition Odds — Live Probabilities

Prediction markets on Venezuela after the January 2026 US operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and put him in a Brooklyn federal jail. Traders now price what comes next: whether the Delcy Rodríguez government holds power through 2026, free-election timing, María Corina Machado's role, sanctions relief, oil output recovery, and further US military action in the Caribbean. Venezuela contracts were among 2025's highest-volume geopolitical markets and remain a live laboratory for regime-transition pricing. This hub tracks every market on the post-Maduro order.