Venezuela Transition Odds — Live Probabilities
Prediction markets on Venezuela after the January 2026 US operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and put him in a Brooklyn federal jail. Traders now price what comes next: whether the Delcy Rodríguez government holds power through 2026, free-election timing, María Corina Machado's role, sanctions relief, oil output recovery, and further US military action in the Caribbean. Venezuela contracts were among 2025's highest-volume geopolitical markets and remain a live laboratory for regime-transition pricing. This hub tracks every market on the post-Maduro order.
Tracked markets
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
2%Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
<1%June 30, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
3%December 31
Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?
16%December 31
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
83%Leader: Nicolás Maduro
US forces enter Venezuela again by...?
>99%June 30
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
7%December 31
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
14%September 30
Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?
55%December 31
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?
10%December 31
Another US strike on Venezuela by...?
<1%January 10
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