Venezuela Transition Odds — Live Probabilities
Prediction markets on Venezuela after the January 2026 US operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and put him in a Brooklyn federal jail. Traders now price what comes next: whether the Delcy Rodríguez government holds power through 2026, free-election timing, María Corina Machado's role, sanctions relief, oil output recovery, and further US military action in the Caribbean. Venezuela contracts were among 2025's highest-volume geopolitical markets and remain a live laboratory for regime-transition pricing. This hub tracks every market on the post-Maduro order.
Tracked markets
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
<1%June 30, 2026
By date— 24h
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
6%December 31
By date$112 24h
Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?
24%December 31
By date$65 24h
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
78%Leader: Nicolás Maduro
Field$73K 24h
US forces enter Venezuela again by...?
>99%June 30
By date— 24h
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
9%December 31
By date$1 24h
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
20%July 31
By date$5K 24h
Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?
14%December 31
By date— 24h
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?
8%December 31
By date$2K 24h
Another US strike on Venezuela by...?
<1%January 10
By date— 24h
Trade these markets on Polymarket →
Fee-free geopolitics markets. 18+.