Federal Reserve & Interest Rate Odds — Live Probabilities
Live market-implied probabilities on the Federal Reserve: rate decisions at each FOMC meeting, the fed funds path, and leadership questions in the Kevin Warsh era. Warsh was sworn in as chair in May 2026 after a 54-45 confirmation, with Jerome Powell staying on as a governor — a transition traders priced for months. This hub tracks meeting-by-meeting cut and hike odds, year-end rate contracts, and governance markets like board resignations and White House pressure scenarios, updated as prices move on every data print.
Tracked markets
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
3%↓ 2.75%
Fed Decision in September?
66%Leader: 25 bps increase
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
45%Leader: 4.0%
Fed Decision in June?
>99%Leader: No change
Fed Decision in July?
>99%Leader: No change
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