Federal Reserve & Interest Rate Odds — Live Probabilities

Live market-implied probabilities on the Federal Reserve: rate decisions at each FOMC meeting, the fed funds path, and leadership questions in the Kevin Warsh era. Warsh was sworn in as chair in May 2026 after a 54-45 confirmation, with Jerome Powell staying on as a governor — a transition traders priced for months. This hub tracks meeting-by-meeting cut and hike odds, year-end rate contracts, and governance markets like board resignations and White House pressure scenarios, updated as prices move on every data print.