What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? Odds
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 5.0% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3179 |
| ↑ 5.25% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3674 |
| ↑ 4.75% | December 31, 2026 | 5% | +1920 |
| ↓ 2.0% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +2885 |
| ↓ 1.25% | December 31, 2026 | 2% | +6567 |
| ↓ 1.75% | December 31, 2026 | 2% | +6352 |
| ↓ 0.5% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3471 |
| ↓ 0% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3822 |
| ↓ 3.0% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3604 |
| ↓ 3.25% | December 31, 2026 | 9% | +1011 |
| ↑ 5.5% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3604 |
| ↑ 4.5% | December 31, 2026 | 5% | +2098 |
| ↑ 4.25% | December 31, 2026 | 23% | +335 |
| ↓ 1.0% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +2841 |
| ↓ 1.5% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3025 |
| ↓ 0.75% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3179 |
| ↓ 0.25% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3025 |
| ↓ 2.25% | December 31, 2026 | 4% | +2640 |
| ↓ 2.75% | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3822 |
| ↓ 2.5% | December 31, 2026 | 4% | +2640 |
- Implied
- 2.6%
- American
- +3822
- Decimal
- 39.22
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 3% — roughly +3822 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
Related markets
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.