Tariff & Trade War Odds — Live Probabilities

Prediction markets on US trade policy after the Supreme Court gutted its legal foundation. On February 20, 2026 the Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs at all, striking down both the April 2025 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariffs and the fentanyl-trafficking tariffs; the administration terminated them and CBP stopped collecting on February 24. The tariff regime didn't vanish — it migrated to other statutes: a 10% global surcharge under Section 122 (which by law expired after 150 days, around July 24, 2026) and, more durably, Section 232 national-security tariffs (steel and aluminum at 50%, autos, and a new 15% polysilicon rate from August 6) plus Section 301 actions. The average effective US tariff rate has fallen back to roughly 7% from its 2025 peak, with China near 23% and USMCA-qualifying Canadian and Mexican goods largely exempt. That reshuffling is what today's contracts actually resolve on: whether specific Section 232 investigations conclude and at what rate by a given date, how large and how fast IEEPA refunds flow through CBP's CAPE system (Phase 2 opened June 29), whether Congress codifies any tariffs, and country-by-country deal deadlines. This hub tracks each with the governing authority and resolution date spelled out, because post-ruling the legal basis, not just the headline rate, decides who gets paid.