Tariff & Trade War Odds — Live Probabilities

Prediction markets on US trade policy: new tariff announcements, trade-deal signings, court rulings on presidential tariff authority, and sector carve-outs. With the administration wielding IEEPA and Section 232 aggressively and litigation testing how much of the tariff regime survives, traders use these contracts to hedge real commercial exposure — making tariff markets some of the sharpest forward indicators in the policy space. This hub tracks deal-by-date markets, average-tariff-rate contracts, and country-specific escalation odds as negotiations evolve through 2026.