GeoOdds

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? Odds

$363K total volume$619 24hResolves by December 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
10%implied chance
0.0pp24h

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
European UnionDecember 31, 20268%+1233
IndiaDecember 31, 202622%+365
CanadaDecember 31, 202621%+376
BrazilDecember 31, 20269%+1024
JapanDecember 31, 202610%+953
IndonesiaDecember 31, 202619%+426
ArgentinaDecember 31, 202612%+733
VietnamDecember 31, 202612%+770
AustraliaDecember 31, 202612%+770
MexicoDecember 31, 202611%+852
South KoreaDecember 31, 202613%+669
IsraelDecember 31, 202617%+488
PakistanDecember 31, 202610%+900
United KingdomDecember 31, 202614%+641
RussiaDecember 31, 20267%+1329
South AfricaDecember 31, 202610%+953
TaiwanDecember 31, 202617%+487
Implied
10%
American
+900
Decimal
10.00
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 10% — roughly +900 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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