Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? Odds
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Union | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1450 |
| India | January 1, 2027 | 11% | +809 |
| Canada | January 1, 2027 | 11% | +809 |
| Brazil | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1381 |
| Japan | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +1823 |
| Indonesia | January 1, 2027 | 14% | +614 |
| Argentina | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1329 |
| Vietnam | January 1, 2027 | 20% | +409 |
| Australia | January 1, 2027 | 9% | +1011 |
| Mexico | January 1, 2027 | 18% | +471 |
| South Korea | January 1, 2027 | 13% | +672 |
| Israel | January 1, 2027 | 13% | +669 |
| Pakistan | January 1, 2027 | 9% | +1011 |
| United Kingdom | January 1, 2027 | 10% | +900 |
| Russia | January 1, 2027 | 9% | +1076 |
| South Africa | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1150 |
| Taiwan | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1339 |
- Implied
- 9%
- American
- +1011
- Decimal
- 11.11
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 9% — roughly +1011 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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