Government Shutdown Odds — Live Probabilities

Prediction-market odds on US government shutdowns and fiscal cliffs: whether funding lapses at the next deadline, how long a shutdown lasts, and debt-limit brinkmanship. After the record 43-day shutdown of late 2025, traders treat every continuing-resolution expiration as a tradable event, and shutdown contracts reliably spike in volume as deadlines approach. This hub follows the September 30 fiscal-year deadline, stopgap negotiations, appropriations progress in a divided-attention midterm year, and the recurring question of who blinks first.