China-Taiwan Conflict Odds — Live Probabilities
Prediction-market probabilities on the world's biggest tail risk: a Chinese move against Taiwan. This hub aggregates markets on invasion and blockade timelines, PLA exercises and incursions, US-China military incidents, Xi Jinping's hold on power, and cross-strait diplomacy. Traders watch these contracts as a real-money barometer of Indo-Pacific risk that often moves ahead of official commentary — especially around Taiwanese elections, US arms packages, and Chinese military drills. Prices here also feed broader macro positioning on semiconductors and shipping.
Tracked markets
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
<1%Yes / No— 24h
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%Yes / No$16K 24h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
>99%Yes / No— 24h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
3%Yes / No$4 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
2%Yes / No$445 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
<1%Yes / No— 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%Yes / No$128K 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
13%Yes / No$10K 24h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
<1%Yes / No— 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
6%Yes / No$3K 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
>99%Yes / No— 24h
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%Yes / No$923 24h
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