China-Taiwan Conflict Odds — Live Probabilities
Prediction-market probabilities on the world's biggest tail risk: a Chinese move against Taiwan. This hub aggregates markets on invasion and blockade timelines, PLA exercises and incursions, US-China military incidents, Xi Jinping's hold on power, and cross-strait diplomacy. Traders watch these contracts as a real-money barometer of Indo-Pacific risk that often moves ahead of official commentary — especially around Taiwanese elections, US arms packages, and Chinese military drills. Prices here also feed broader macro positioning on semiconductors and shipping.
Tracked markets
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
<1%Yes / No$54K 24h
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
8%Yes / No$31K 24h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
92%Yes / No$28K 24h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
3%Yes / No$367 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
3%Yes / No$1K 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
<1%Yes / No$43K 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
6%Yes / No$80K 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
16%Yes / No$2K 24h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
<1%Yes / No$17K 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
10%Yes / No$18K 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
21%Yes / No$1K 24h
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
10%Yes / No$5K 24h
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