China-Taiwan Conflict Odds — Live Probabilities
Prediction-market probabilities on the world's biggest tail risk: a Chinese move against Taiwan. This hub aggregates markets on invasion and blockade timelines, PLA exercises and incursions, US-China military incidents, Xi Jinping's hold on power, and cross-strait diplomacy. Traders watch these contracts as a real-money barometer of Indo-Pacific risk that often moves ahead of official commentary — especially around Taiwanese elections, US arms packages, and Chinese military drills. Prices here also feed broader macro positioning on semiconductors and shipping.
Tracked markets
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
>99%Leader: André do Prado
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
>99%Leader: Guilherme Derrite
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place
>99%Leader: Bia Kicis
US x China Military clash before 2027?
2%Taipei Mayor Election Winner
70%Leader: Chiang Wan-an
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
3%Cai Qi
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
>99%Leader: SPD
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
>99%Leader: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
>99%Leader: Linke
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place
>99%Leader: Christian Democrats (KD)
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
>99%Leader: Sweden Democrats (SD)
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
>99%Leader: Moderate Party (M)
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
- Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Florida Governor Republican Primary Second Place
- Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 2nd Place
- Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Clacton by-election: 2nd place
- China x India military clash by...?
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
- Xi Jinping out by June 30?
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- California Governor Primary Election: First Place
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade these markets on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.