China-Taiwan Conflict Odds — Live Probabilities
Prediction-market probabilities on the world's biggest tail risk: a Chinese move against Taiwan. This hub aggregates markets on invasion and blockade timelines, PLA exercises and incursions, US-China military incidents, Xi Jinping's hold on power, and cross-strait diplomacy. Traders watch these contracts as a real-money barometer of Indo-Pacific risk that often moves ahead of official commentary — especially around Taiwanese elections, US arms packages, and Chinese military drills. Prices here also feed broader macro positioning on semiconductors and shipping.
Tracked markets
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
82%Leader: Sweden Democrats (SD)
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
98%December 31
Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place
>99%Leader: Auyl
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
28%Florida Governor Republican Primary Second Place
>99%Leader: Jay Collins
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 2nd Place
>99%Leader: CDU
Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
89%Leader: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
Clacton by-election: 2nd place
>99%Leader: Count Binface
China x India military clash by...?
7%December 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
47%Leader: Augusto Cury
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
<1%Xi Jinping out before 2027?
4%- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- California Governor Primary Election: First Place
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
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