Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Odds
Flávio Bolsonaro
last 24h
Probability over time
Current standings
- 1Flávio Bolsonaro77%
- 2Renan Santos15%
- 3Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva5%
- 4Michelle Bolsonaro<1%
- 5Ronaldo Caiado<1%
- 6Fernando Haddad<1%
- ·Others (26 outcomes)2%
- Implied
- 76.5%
- American
- -326
- Decimal
- 1.31
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 77% — roughly -326 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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