Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Odds
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2678 |
- Implied
- 3.6%
- American
- +2678
- Decimal
- 27.78
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 4% — roughly +2678 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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