GeoOdds

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Odds

$14.2M total volume$31 24hResolves by March 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
7%implied chance
0.0pp24h

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
December 31March 31, 20267%+1438
Implied
6.5%
American
+1438
Decimal
15.38
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 7% — roughly +1438 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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