US forces enter Venezuela again by...? Odds
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Probability over time
No price history yet
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | January 31, 2026 | <1% | — |
| January 10 | January 31, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 30 | January 31, 2026 | >99% | — |
| March 31 | January 31, 2026 | <1% | — |
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of US forces enter Venezuela again by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at >99%. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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