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Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Odds

$767K total volume 24hResolves by January 1, 2027Polymarket, 10-min refresh
13%implied chance
0.0pp24h

Will Iran hold a presidential election by December 31?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
December 31January 1, 202713%+700
Implied
12.5%
American
+700
Decimal
8.00
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 13% — roughly +700 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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