Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Odds
Will Iran hold a presidential election by December 31?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | January 1, 2027 | 13% | +700 |
- Implied
- 12.5%
- American
- +700
- Decimal
- 8.00
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 13% — roughly +700 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
Related markets
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)Geopolitics
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?Geopolitics
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?Geopolitics
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Geopolitics
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?Geopolitics
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Geopolitics
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.