US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Odds
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
- Implied
- 5.5%
- American
- +1718
- Decimal
- 18.18
Cross-market check
Polymarket
6%
Kalshi
8%
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Spread: -2.1pp (Polymarket − Kalshi)
Kalshi comparison shown only for verified equivalent markets.
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 6% — roughly +1718 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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