Russia Parliamentary Election Winner Odds
United Russia (ER)
last 24h
Probability over time
Current standings
- 1United Russia (ER)96%
- 2New People (NL)2%
- 3Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%
- 4Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)<1%
- 5A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)<1%
- 6Rodina<1%
- ·Others (28 outcomes)<1%
- Implied
- 95.8%
- American
- -2253
- Decimal
- 1.04
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Russia Parliamentary Election Winner?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 96% — roughly -2253 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
Related markets
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Geopolitics
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Geopolitics
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Geopolitics
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Geopolitics
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?Geopolitics
- Will Russia capture Sumy by...?Geopolitics
Fee-free geopolitics markets. 18+.