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Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? Odds

$1.7M total volume$8K 24hResolves by January 1, 2027Polymarket, 10-min refresh
35%implied chance
+2.5pp24h

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
SlovianskJanuary 1, 202712%+770
SumyJanuary 1, 20275%+2005
DruzkhivkaJanuary 1, 202735%+186
KramatorskJanuary 1, 202716%+545
KharkivJanuary 1, 20272%+4248
KhersonJanuary 1, 20272%+4155
ZaporizhiaJanuary 1, 20273%+3126
Implied
35%
American
+186
Decimal
2.86
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the specified city or settlement between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 35% — roughly +186 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the specified city or settlement between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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