Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? Odds
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
- Implied
- 1.4%
- American
- +7307
- Decimal
- 74.07
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 1% — roughly +7307 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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