NATO article 5 before 2027? Odds
NATO article 5 before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
- Implied
- 5.6%
- American
- +1686
- Decimal
- 17.86
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of NATO article 5 before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 6% — roughly +1686 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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