2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? Odds
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | April 17, 2027 | 78% | -355 |
| Jérôme Guedj | April 17, 2027 | 10% | +953 |
| Delphine Batho | April 17, 2027 | 8% | +1233 |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | April 17, 2027 | 9% | +1076 |
| Karim Bouamrane | April 17, 2027 | 16% | +525 |
| Philippe de Villiers | April 17, 2027 | 9% | +1076 |
| Manuel Valls | April 17, 2027 | 5% | +1900 |
| Matthieu Pigasse | April 17, 2027 | 17% | +506 |
| Bally Bagayoko | April 17, 2027 | 6% | +1670 |
| Juan Branco | April 17, 2027 | 16% | +545 |
| Teddy Riner | April 17, 2027 | 3% | +3025 |
| Marine Le Pen | April 17, 2027 | 22% | +365 |
| Jordan Bardella | April 17, 2027 | 76% | -317 |
| Éric Zemmour | April 17, 2027 | 79% | -365 |
| Édouard Philippe | April 17, 2027 | 79% | -365 |
| David Lisnard | April 17, 2027 | 56% | -127 |
| Xavier Bertrand | April 17, 2027 | 14% | +590 |
| Laurent Wauquiez | April 17, 2027 | 3% | +3674 |
| François Ruffin | April 17, 2027 | 23% | +344 |
| Gabriel Attal | April 17, 2027 | 42% | +138 |
| Bruno Retailleau | April 17, 2027 | 71% | -239 |
| François Hollande | April 17, 2027 | 33% | +203 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | April 17, 2027 | 34% | +194 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | April 17, 2027 | 92% | -1076 |
| Marine Tondelier | April 17, 2027 | 33% | +208 |
| Fabien Roussel | April 17, 2027 | 57% | -135 |
| Olivier Faure | April 17, 2027 | 7% | +1329 |
| Dominique de Villepin | April 17, 2027 | 33% | +203 |
| Ségolène Royal | April 17, 2027 | 11% | +809 |
| François Asselineau | April 17, 2027 | 24% | +317 |
| Clémentine Autain | April 17, 2027 | 5% | +1842 |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | April 17, 2027 | 53% | -111 |
| Michel Barnier | April 17, 2027 | 2% | +3982 |
| Valérie Pécresse | April 17, 2027 | 7% | +1289 |
| François Bayrou | April 17, 2027 | 22% | +357 |
| Élisabeth Borne | April 17, 2027 | 3% | +3290 |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | April 17, 2027 | 6% | +1500 |
| Jean Castex | April 17, 2027 | 10% | +885 |
| Gérald Darmanin | April 17, 2027 | 11% | +826 |
| Carole Delga | April 17, 2027 | 10% | +900 |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | April 17, 2027 | 11% | +809 |
| Manuel Bompard | April 17, 2027 | 9% | +1011 |
| Mathilde Panot | April 17, 2027 | 4% | +2678 |
| Sarah Knafo | April 17, 2027 | 38% | +167 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | April 17, 2027 | 7% | +1329 |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | April 17, 2027 | 7% | +1438 |
- Implied
- 16.5%
- American
- +506
- Decimal
- 6.06
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 17% — roughly +506 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
Related markets
- Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of VictoryGeopolitics
- Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?US Politics
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028US Politics
- Presidential Election Winner 2028US Politics
- Peru Presidential Election WinnerUS Politics
- Next French Presidential ElectionUS Politics
Fee-free geopolitics markets. 18+.