2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? Odds
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent Wauquiez | April 17, 2027 | 3% | +2885 |
| Valérie Pécresse | April 18, 2027 | 4% | +2497 |
| François Bayrou | April 18, 2027 | 5% | +1880 |
| Élisabeth Borne | April 18, 2027 | 7% | +1360 |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | April 18, 2027 | 6% | +1624 |
| Jean Castex | April 18, 2027 | 5% | +1769 |
| Gérald Darmanin | April 18, 2027 | 4% | +2567 |
| Carole Delga | April 18, 2027 | 5% | +1920 |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | April 18, 2027 | 6% | +1718 |
| Manuel Bompard | April 18, 2027 | 5% | +1962 |
| Mathilde Panot | April 18, 2027 | 4% | +2199 |
| Sarah Knafo | April 18, 2027 | 15% | +567 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | April 18, 2027 | 6% | +1639 |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | April 18, 2027 | 6% | +1718 |
| Nathalie Arthaud | April 18, 2027 | 87% | -641 |
| Delphine Batho | April 18, 2027 | 10% | +931 |
| Jérôme Guedj | April 18, 2027 | 4% | +2339 |
| Karim Bouamrane | April 18, 2027 | 5% | +1962 |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | April 18, 2027 | 6% | +1702 |
| Manuel Valls | April 18, 2027 | 4% | +2400 |
| Teddy Riner | April 18, 2027 | 5% | +1752 |
| Matthieu Pigasse | April 18, 2027 | 6% | +1702 |
| Juan Branco | April 18, 2027 | 11% | +809 |
| Philippe de Villiers | April 18, 2027 | 5% | +1962 |
| Bally Bagayoko | April 18, 2027 | 5% | +2074 |
| Marine Le Pen | July 1, 2027 | 92% | -1076 |
| Jordan Bardella | July 1, 2027 | 11% | +773 |
| Éric Zemmour | July 1, 2027 | 77% | -326 |
| Édouard Philippe | July 1, 2027 | 80% | -388 |
| David Lisnard | July 1, 2027 | 81% | -426 |
| Xavier Bertrand | July 1, 2027 | 7% | +1404 |
| François Ruffin | July 1, 2027 | 20% | +400 |
| Gabriel Attal | July 1, 2027 | 21% | +376 |
| Bruno Retailleau | July 1, 2027 | 53% | -111 |
| François Hollande | July 1, 2027 | 21% | +388 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | July 1, 2027 | 83% | -471 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | July 1, 2027 | 92% | -1112 |
| Marine Tondelier | July 1, 2027 | 28% | +251 |
| Fabien Roussel | July 1, 2027 | 82% | -441 |
| Olivier Faure | July 1, 2027 | 5% | +2074 |
| Dominique de Villepin | July 1, 2027 | 33% | +203 |
| Ségolène Royal | July 1, 2027 | 3% | +3233 |
| François Asselineau | July 1, 2027 | 12% | +733 |
| Clémentine Autain | July 1, 2027 | 4% | +2678 |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | July 1, 2027 | 69% | -217 |
| Michel Barnier | July 1, 2027 | 6% | +1487 |
- Implied
- 20.5%
- American
- +388
- Decimal
- 4.88
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 21% — roughly +388 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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