GeoOdds

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? Odds

$245K total volume$1K 24hResolves by April 17, 2027Polymarket, 10-min refresh
89%implied chance
0.0pp24h

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
Nathalie ArthaudApril 17, 202783%-488
Jérôme GuedjApril 17, 20277%+1329
Delphine BathoApril 17, 20273%+3604
Michel-Edouard LeclercApril 17, 20279%+1011
Karim BouamraneApril 17, 20275%+2122
Philippe de VilliersApril 17, 20278%+1233
Manuel VallsApril 17, 20274%+2369
Matthieu PigasseApril 17, 202712%+733
Bally BagayokoApril 17, 20277%+1339
Juan BrancoApril 17, 202715%+567
Teddy RinerApril 17, 20273%+2799
Marine Le PenApril 17, 202789%-770
Jordan BardellaApril 17, 202712%+751
Éric ZemmourApril 17, 202779%-365
Édouard PhilippeApril 17, 202784%-506
David LisnardApril 17, 202762%-160
Xavier BertrandApril 17, 20276%+1718
Laurent WauquiezApril 17, 20273%+2977
François RuffinApril 17, 202725%+308
Gabriel AttalApril 17, 202735%+190
Bruno RetailleauApril 17, 202774%-285
François HollandeApril 17, 202731%+223
Raphaël GlucksmannApril 17, 202759%-144
Jean-Luc MélenchonApril 17, 202796%-2717
Marine TondelierApril 17, 202727%+270
Fabien RousselApril 17, 202787%-669
Olivier FaureApril 17, 202716%+539
Dominique de VillepinApril 17, 202737%+170
Ségolène RoyalApril 17, 20277%+1438
François AsselineauApril 17, 202721%+388
Clémentine AutainApril 17, 20273%+3179
Nicolas Dupont-AignanApril 17, 202764%-178
Michel BarnierApril 17, 20272%+5163
Valérie PécresseApril 17, 20272%+6150
François BayrouApril 17, 20276%+1702
Élisabeth BorneApril 17, 20271%+7900
Yaël Braun-PivetApril 17, 20273%+2885
Jean CastexApril 17, 20275%+2074
Gérald DarmaninApril 17, 20276%+1500
Carole DelgaApril 17, 20273%+2930
Bernard CazeneuveApril 17, 202721%+376
Manuel BompardApril 17, 20278%+1150
Mathilde PanotApril 17, 20272%+4344
Sarah KnafoApril 17, 202722%+365
Sébastien LecornuApril 17, 202710%+910
Jean-Michel FauvergueApril 17, 20276%+1567
Implied
88.5%
American
-770
Decimal
1.13
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 89% — roughly -770 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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