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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? Odds

$379K total volume$1K 24hResolves by April 17, 2027Polymarket, 10-min refresh
89%implied chance
0.0pp24h

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
Nathalie ArthaudApril 17, 202786%-590
Jérôme GuedjApril 17, 20273%+3025
Delphine BathoApril 17, 20278%+1105
Michel-Edouard LeclercApril 17, 20277%+1438
Karim BouamraneApril 17, 20274%+2281
Philippe de VilliersApril 17, 20274%+2199
Manuel VallsApril 17, 20275%+2051
Matthieu PigasseApril 17, 20277%+1438
Bally BagayokoApril 17, 20275%+1752
Juan BrancoApril 17, 202713%+700
Teddy RinerApril 17, 20276%+1639
Marine Le PenApril 17, 202789%-770
Jordan BardellaApril 17, 202713%+687
Éric ZemmourApril 17, 202779%-376
Édouard PhilippeApril 17, 202788%-700
David LisnardApril 17, 202758%-138
Xavier BertrandApril 17, 202717%+506
Laurent WauquiezApril 17, 20273%+2841
François RuffinApril 17, 202736%+182
Gabriel AttalApril 17, 202727%+277
Bruno RetailleauApril 17, 202777%-326
François HollandeApril 17, 202737%+170
Raphaël GlucksmannApril 17, 202766%-190
Jean-Luc MélenchonApril 17, 202796%-2432
Marine TondelierApril 17, 202726%+292
Fabien RousselApril 17, 202789%-770
Olivier FaureApril 17, 202715%+573
Dominique de VillepinApril 17, 202731%+228
Ségolène RoyalApril 17, 20274%+2757
François AsselineauApril 17, 202710%+900
Clémentine AutainApril 17, 2027<1%+11011
Nicolas Dupont-AignanApril 17, 202756%-130
Michel BarnierApril 17, 20275%+1983
Valérie PécresseApril 17, 20273%+3233
François BayrouApril 17, 20275%+2122
Élisabeth BorneApril 17, 20276%+1639
Yaël Braun-PivetApril 17, 20275%+1920
Jean CastexApril 17, 20275%+2005
Gérald DarmaninApril 17, 20275%+2005
Carole DelgaApril 17, 20274%+2339
Bernard CazeneuveApril 17, 20276%+1500
Manuel BompardApril 17, 20278%+1233
Mathilde PanotApril 17, 20273%+2930
Sarah KnafoApril 17, 202714%+641
Sébastien LecornuApril 17, 20276%+1487
Jean-Michel FauvergueApril 17, 20278%+1233
Implied
88.5%
American
-770
Decimal
1.13
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 89% — roughly -770 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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