GeoOdds

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? Odds

$278K total volume$2K 24hResolves by April 17, 2027Polymarket, 10-min refresh
86%implied chance
+1.0pp24h

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
Nathalie ArthaudApril 17, 202790%-852
Jérôme GuedjApril 17, 202716%+545
Delphine BathoApril 17, 20273%+3674
Michel-Edouard LeclercApril 17, 20277%+1329
Karim BouamraneApril 17, 20275%+1900
Philippe de VilliersApril 17, 20278%+1233
Manuel VallsApril 17, 20275%+2098
Matthieu PigasseApril 17, 20278%+1150
Bally BagayokoApril 17, 20273%+2977
Juan BrancoApril 17, 202712%+770
Teddy RinerApril 17, 20274%+2757
Marine Le PenApril 17, 202786%-614
Jordan BardellaApril 17, 20279%+958
Éric ZemmourApril 17, 202760%-150
Édouard PhilippeApril 17, 202780%-400
David LisnardApril 17, 202753%-113
Xavier BertrandApril 17, 202716%+545
Laurent WauquiezApril 17, 20273%+3290
François RuffinApril 17, 202730%+239
Gabriel AttalApril 17, 202737%+174
Bruno RetailleauApril 17, 202775%-292
François HollandeApril 17, 202732%+217
Raphaël GlucksmannApril 17, 202751%-104
Jean-Luc MélenchonApril 17, 202795%-1735
Marine TondelierApril 17, 202734%+194
Fabien RousselApril 17, 202784%-525
Olivier FaureApril 17, 20272%+4155
Dominique de VillepinApril 17, 202725%+308
Ségolène RoyalApril 17, 20277%+1438
François AsselineauApril 17, 202713%+700
Clémentine AutainApril 17, 20273%+2930
Nicolas Dupont-AignanApril 17, 202759%-141
Michel BarnierApril 17, 20272%+5028
Valérie PécresseApril 17, 20273%+3471
François BayrouApril 17, 20276%+1654
Élisabeth BorneApril 17, 20272%+4248
Yaël Braun-PivetApril 17, 20273%+3536
Jean CastexApril 17, 20274%+2603
Gérald DarmaninApril 17, 20277%+1289
Carole DelgaApril 17, 20274%+2532
Bernard CazeneuveApril 17, 202715%+567
Manuel BompardApril 17, 20278%+1150
Mathilde PanotApril 17, 20272%+5782
Sarah KnafoApril 17, 202739%+160
Sébastien LecornuApril 17, 20278%+1158
Jean-Michel FauvergueApril 17, 20276%+1718
Implied
86%
American
-614
Decimal
1.16
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 86% — roughly -614 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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