Next French Presidential Election Odds
Marine Le Pen
last 24h
Probability over time
Current standings
- 1Marine Le Pen37%
- 2Édouard Philippe30%
- 3Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
- 4David Lisnard5%
- 5François Hollande3%
- 6Jordan Bardella2%
- ·Others (122 outcomes)10%
- Implied
- 37.5%
- American
- +167
- Decimal
- 2.67
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Next French Presidential Election?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 37% — roughly +167 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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