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Next French Presidential Election Odds

$130.1M total volume$1.2M 24hResolves by April 30, 2027Polymarket, 10-min refresh
37%implied chance
+1.8pp24h

Marine Le Pen

last 24h

Probability over time

Current standings

  1. 1
    Marine Le Pen37%
  2. 2
    Édouard Philippe30%
  3. 3
    Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
  4. 4
    David Lisnard5%
  5. 5
    François Hollande3%
  6. 6
    Jordan Bardella2%
  7. ·
    Others (122 outcomes)10%
Implied
37.5%
American
+167
Decimal
2.67
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Next French Presidential Election?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 37% — roughly +167 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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