French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? Odds
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bardella | April 18, 2027 | 3% | +3471 |
| Michel Barnier | April 18, 2027 | 9% | +1076 |
| Valérie Pécresse | April 18, 2027 | 5% | +2051 |
| Élisabeth Borne | April 18, 2027 | 6% | +1686 |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | April 18, 2027 | 10% | +931 |
| Jean Castex | April 18, 2027 | 2% | +4155 |
| Gérald Darmanin | April 18, 2027 | 5% | +1752 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | April 18, 2027 | 3% | +3025 |
| François Bayrou | April 18, 2027 | 6% | +1567 |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | April 18, 2027 | 50% | +102 |
| Carole Delga | April 18, 2027 | 6% | +1718 |
| François Hollande | April 18, 2027 | 68% | -208 |
| Manuel Bompard | April 18, 2027 | 8% | +1150 |
| Mathilde Panot | April 18, 2027 | 3% | +3126 |
| Dominique de Villepin | April 18, 2027 | 49% | +106 |
- Implied
- 3.1%
- American
- +3126
- Decimal
- 32.26
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 3% — roughly +3126 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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