Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028? Odds
No Next Chancellor before 2028
last 24h
Probability over time
Current standings
- 1No Next Chancellor before 202867%
- 2Person A50%
- 3Person B50%
- 4Person C50%
- 5Person D50%
- 6Person E50%
- ·Others (60 outcomes)>99%
- Implied
- 66.5%
- American
- -199
- Decimal
- 1.50
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 67% — roughly -199 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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