Who will announce Presidential run before 2028? Odds
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | December 31, 2026 | 65% | -186 |
| Josh Shapiro | December 31, 2026 | 66% | -194 |
| Tim Walz | December 31, 2026 | 9% | +1043 |
| Phil Murphy | December 31, 2026 | 43% | +135 |
| Andrew Yang | December 31, 2026 | 52% | -108 |
| Marco Rubio | December 31, 2026 | 41% | +144 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | December 31, 2026 | 14% | +641 |
| Josh Hawley | December 31, 2026 | 35% | +190 |
| Matt Gaetz | December 31, 2026 | 17% | +506 |
| Katie Britt | December 31, 2026 | 39% | +160 |
| John Thune | December 31, 2026 | 16% | +525 |
| Kristi Noem | December 31, 2026 | 17% | +506 |
| Mike Pence | December 31, 2026 | 16% | +525 |
| Tucker Carlson | December 31, 2026 | 17% | +488 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | December 31, 2026 | 16% | +545 |
| Ivanka Trump | December 31, 2026 | 7% | +1339 |
| Tom Brady | December 31, 2026 | 11% | +809 |
| Rand Paul | December 31, 2026 | 41% | +147 |
| Steve Bannon | December 31, 2026 | 33% | +203 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | December 31, 2026 | 26% | +285 |
| Don Lemon | December 31, 2026 | 23% | +344 |
| Candace Owens | December 31, 2026 | 16% | +545 |
| Gavin Newsom | January 1, 2028 | 77% | -326 |
| Pete Buttigieg | January 1, 2028 | 80% | -388 |
| Wes Moore | January 1, 2028 | 52% | -106 |
| Stephen A. Smith | January 1, 2028 | 20% | +413 |
| Kamala Harris | January 1, 2028 | 52% | -106 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | January 1, 2028 | 32% | +217 |
| Andy Beshear | January 1, 2028 | 88% | -744 |
| Jon Ossoff | January 1, 2028 | 50% | +102 |
| Mark Cuban | January 1, 2028 | 19% | +441 |
| J.B. Pritzker | January 1, 2028 | 53% | -111 |
| Raphael Warnock | January 1, 2028 | 59% | -141 |
| Cory Booker | January 1, 2028 | 60% | -147 |
| Michelle Obama | January 1, 2028 | 15% | +567 |
| Mark Kelly | January 1, 2028 | 57% | -135 |
| Rahm Emanuel | January 1, 2028 | 62% | -160 |
| Gina Raimondo | January 1, 2028 | 36% | +178 |
| Zohran Mamdani | January 1, 2028 | 9% | +1076 |
| Roy Cooper | January 1, 2028 | 21% | +376 |
| John Fetterman | January 1, 2028 | 18% | +471 |
| Jared Polis | January 1, 2028 | 38% | +167 |
| Jon Stewart | January 1, 2028 | 16% | +525 |
| Barack Obama | January 1, 2028 | 2% | +4067 |
| Hillary Clinton | January 1, 2028 | 4% | +2603 |
| Liz Cheney | January 1, 2028 | 14% | +614 |
| Bernie Sanders | January 1, 2028 | 12% | +770 |
| LeBron James | January 1, 2028 | 11% | +830 |
| Hunter Biden | January 1, 2028 | 33% | +208 |
| George Clooney | January 1, 2028 | 12% | +703 |
| Chelsea Clinton | January 1, 2028 | 11% | +830 |
| MrBeast | January 1, 2028 | 9% | +1076 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | January 1, 2028 | 16% | +545 |
| Oprah Winfrey | January 1, 2028 | 13% | +700 |
| Beto O’Rourke | January 1, 2028 | 12% | +770 |
| Kim Kardashian | January 1, 2028 | 12% | +733 |
| Donald Trump | January 1, 2028 | 12% | +733 |
| J.D. Vance | January 1, 2028 | 77% | -334 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | January 1, 2028 | 19% | +426 |
| Glenn Youngkin | January 1, 2028 | 34% | +199 |
| Ron DeSantis | January 1, 2028 | 65% | -182 |
| Nikki Haley | January 1, 2028 | 25% | +308 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | January 1, 2028 | 24% | +326 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | January 1, 2028 | 21% | +388 |
| Greg Abbott | January 1, 2028 | 25% | +300 |
| Brian Kemp | January 1, 2028 | 55% | -120 |
| Byron Donalds | January 1, 2028 | 24% | +317 |
| Elise Stefanik | January 1, 2028 | 25% | +300 |
| Ted Cruz | January 1, 2028 | 83% | -471 |
| Elon Musk | January 1, 2028 | 13% | +700 |
| Erika Kirk | January 1, 2028 | 7% | +1438 |
- Implied
- 65%
- American
- -186
- Decimal
- 1.54
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 65% — roughly -186 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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