Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Odds
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
- Implied
- 4%
- American
- +2400
- Decimal
- 25.00
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 4% — roughly +2400 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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