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Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...? Odds

$1.8M total volume$54 24hResolves by December 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
4%implied chance
-0.1pp24h

Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
September 30September 30, 202625%+300
December 31December 31, 20264%+2339
Implied
4.1%
American
+2339
Decimal
24.39
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 4% — roughly +2339 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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