Israel closes its airspace by...? Odds
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Probability over time
No price history yet
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8 | May 9, 2026 | <1% | — |
| May 24 | May 25, 2026 | <1% | — |
| May 31 | June 1, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 8 | June 9, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 9 | June 10, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 10 | June 11, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 11 | June 12, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 12 | June 13, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 13 | June 14, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 14 | June 15, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 15 | June 16, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 30 | July 1, 2026 | <1% | — |
| July 7 | July 8, 2026 | <1% | — |
| July 15 | July 16, 2026 | <1% | — |
| July 24 | July 25, 2026 | <1% | — |
| July 31 | August 1, 2026 | <1% | — |
| August 15 | August 16, 2026 | <1% | — |
| August 31 | September 1, 2026 | <1% | — |
| September 30 | October 1, 2026 | >99% | — |
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Israel closes its airspace by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at <1%. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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