GeoOdds

Israel closes its airspace by...? Odds

$31.2M total volume— 24hResolves by October 1, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
<1%implied chance

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Probability over time

No price history yet

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
May 8May 9, 2026<1%—
May 24May 25, 2026<1%—
May 31June 1, 2026<1%—
June 8June 9, 2026<1%—
June 9June 10, 2026<1%—
June 10June 11, 2026<1%—
June 11June 12, 2026<1%—
June 12June 13, 2026<1%—
June 13June 14, 2026<1%—
June 14June 15, 2026<1%—
June 15June 16, 2026<1%—
June 30July 1, 2026<1%—
July 7July 8, 2026<1%—
July 15July 16, 2026<1%—
July 24July 25, 2026<1%—
July 31August 1, 2026<1%—
August 15August 16, 2026<1%—
August 31September 1, 2026<1%—
September 30October 1, 2026>99%—
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Israel closes its airspace by...?

Polymarket traders currently price this at <1%. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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