Israel closes its airspace by...? Odds
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | July 15, 2026 | 26% | +285 |
| July 31 | July 31, 2026 | 5% | +2122 |
| August 15 | August 15, 2026 | 17% | +488 |
- Implied
- 4.5%
- American
- +2122
- Decimal
- 22.22
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Israel closes its airspace by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 5% — roughly +2122 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
Related markets
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?Geopolitics
- Will Israel annex any territory by...?Geopolitics
- Will Hezbollah disarm by...?Geopolitics
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Geopolitics
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Geopolitics
- Netanyahu out by...?Geopolitics
Fee-free geopolitics markets. 18+.