What moved in world markets — August 15, 2026

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? moved -10.0pp in the last 24 hours to 13% on $174.6K of volume.

The 60-day negotiating window from the June 17 Islamabad memorandum of understanding runs out around August 17, and the odds of a formal extension fell about 10 points to 13%. On August 14 a senior Iranian source told Reuters there was 'no talk of an extension' because Washington violated the interim agreement 48 hours after it was reached, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will not initiate talks while the US breaches the deal, communicating only through Pakistani and Qatari intermediaries. With the two sides trading demands rather than dates, the market now treats a formal extension of the negotiation period as unlikely.

$175K traded in 24h · live odds →

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? moved +9.0pp in the last 24 hours to 70% on $87.5K of volume.

The heaviest-traded outcome in this venue market is not a country but 'No Meeting by September 30,' and it firmed about 9 points to roughly 70%. The move tracks the same August 14 signals that hit the extension contract: Iran's public refusal to sit down while it says the US is breaching the interim deal, and reporting that no direct US-Iran round is currently on the books. The market is effectively pricing the next formal round slipping past the September 30 cutoff rather than betting on any single host city.

$88K traded in 24h · live odds →

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…? moved -5.0pp in the last 24 hours to 10% on $25.2K of volume.

Odds of an Israeli pullback from beyond the Litani River fell about 5 points to 10% after Defense Minister Israel Katz visited southern Lebanon on August 12 and said Israel would not leave the security zone it holds there, remarks widely read as signaling an indefinite occupation. After US criticism, Israel on August 13 tied any withdrawal to verified Hezbollah disarmament, saying 'extensive Hezbollah military infrastructure still exists south of the Litani' and that the disarmament mission remains far from complete. That conditioning pushed a near-term withdrawal further out of reach.

$25K traded in 24h · live odds →

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner moved +3.9pp in the last 24 hours to 87% on $175.8K of volume.

Appointed Senator Darline Graham, the late Lindsey Graham's sister, extended her lead to about 87% ahead of the August 25 Republican runoff against Representative Ralph Norman. On August 14, Representative Russell Fry, who took roughly 20% in the August 11 primary, endorsed Graham, and President Trump reiterated his own endorsement in a Truth Social post the same day. The move continues the establishment consolidation that began right after the primary, with Tim Scott and other senators already lined up behind her.

$176K traded in 24h · live odds →

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? moved +1.0pp in the last 24 hours to 100% on $290.1K of volume.

The contract on the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding ticked up a point to essentially 100%, even as the diplomatic track stalled. Ahead of the August 17 expiry, both sides signaled their consent to Pakistani mediators around August 12 to keep the truce in place, and Iran's harder-line August 14 comments were aimed at the interim deal and negotiations, not at resuming fire. The market reads the shooting halt as near-certain to continue regardless of whether the broader talks revive.

$290K traded in 24h · live odds →