Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Odds
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | April 30, 2026 | 14% | +590 |
| July 31 | July 31, 2026 | <1% | +19900 |
| August 31 | August 31, 2026 | 9% | +1076 |
| December 31 | December 31, 2026 | 22% | +365 |
- Implied
- 14.5%
- American
- +590
- Decimal
- 6.90
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 14% — roughly +590 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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