Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? Odds

Q: What are the odds of Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 84% — roughly -506 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

Q: What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Q: Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

$2.2M total volume$579K 24hResolves by August 11, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh

84%implied chance

+48.0pp24h

160-179

last 24h

Probability over time

30D90D

Current standings

1
160-17984%
2
180-19916%
3
200-219<1%
4
240-259<1%
5
300-319<1%
6
340-359<1%
·
Others (12 outcomes)<1%

Implied: 83.5%
American: -506
Decimal: 1.20

Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 84% — roughly -506 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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