France declares state of emergency by...? Odds
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 21 | October 22, 2026 | <1% | +39900 |
| October 31 | November 1, 2026 | 7% | +1438 |
| December 31 | January 1, 2027 | 13% | +669 |
- Implied
- 6.5%
- American
- +1438
- Decimal
- 15.38
Cross-market check
Polymarket
7%
Kalshi
24%
KXFRANCEEMERGENCY-27-27JAN01
Spread: -17.5pp (Polymarket − Kalshi)
Kalshi comparison shown only for verified equivalent markets.
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of France declares state of emergency by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 7% — roughly +1438 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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