France declares state of siege (martial law) by...? Odds
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | November 1, 2026 | 1% | +9424 |
| November 15 | November 16, 2026 | 2% | +4155 |
| December 31 | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +2977 |
- Implied
- 2.4%
- American
- +4155
- Decimal
- 42.55
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 2% — roughly +4155 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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