Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Odds
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | January 1, 2027 | 12% | +770 |
| September 30, 2026 | January 1, 2027 | <1% | +22122 |
| October 31, 2026 | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +2122 |
- Implied
- 11.5%
- American
- +770
- Decimal
- 8.70
Cross-market check
Polymarket
12%
Kalshi
13%
KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-27JAN01
Spread: -1.5pp (Polymarket − Kalshi)
Kalshi comparison shown only for verified equivalent markets.
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 12% — roughly +770 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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