Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Odds
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 30, 2026 | December 1, 2026 | <1% | +13233 |
| December 31, 2026 | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3746 |
| March 31, 2027 | April 1, 2027 | 6% | +1475 |
| June 30, 2027 | July 1, 2027 | 20% | +400 |
| December 31, 2027 | January 1, 2028 | 38% | +167 |
- Implied
- 2.6%
- American
- +3746
- Decimal
- 38.46
Cross-market check
Polymarket
3%
Kalshi
8%
KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-27JAN01
Spread: -5.4pp (Polymarket − Kalshi)
Kalshi comparison shown only for verified equivalent markets.
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 3% — roughly +3746 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.