Iceland EU referendum passes? Odds
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
last 24h
Probability over time
- Implied
- 42.5%
- American
- +135
- Decimal
- 2.35
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Iceland EU referendum passes?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 43% — roughly +135 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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