Lecornu out as French PM by...? Odds
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 31, 2026 | August 31, 2026 | <1% | +10426 |
| September 30, 2026 | September 30, 2026 | 3% | +3290 |
| December 31, 2026 | December 31, 2026 | 28% | +264 |
- Implied
- 27.5%
- American
- +264
- Decimal
- 3.64
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Lecornu out as French PM by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 28% — roughly +264 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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