MN-05 Republican Primary Winner Odds
John Nagel
last 24h
Probability over time
Current standings
- 1John Nagel98%
- 2Candidate A50%
- 3Candidate B50%
- 4Candidate C50%
- 5Candidate D50%
- 6Candidate E50%
- ·Others (4 outcomes)50%
- Implied
- 98%
- American
- -4900
- Decimal
- 1.02
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of MN-05 Republican Primary Winner?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 98% — roughly -4900 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.