New Zealand legislative election winner? Odds
National Party
last 24h
Probability over time
Current standings
- 1National Party67%
- 2Labour Party34%
- 3Green Party<1%
- 4ACT New Zealand<1%
- 5New Zealand First Party<1%
- 6Te Pāti Māori<1%
- ·Others (27 outcomes)<1%
- Implied
- 66.5%
- American
- -199
- Decimal
- 1.50
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid part list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of New Zealand legislative election winner?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 67% — roughly -199 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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