Next Prime Minister of New Zealand? Odds
Chris Hipkins
last 24h
Probability over time
Current standings
- 1Chris Hipkins57%
- 2Christopher Luxon38%
- 3Winston Peters<1%
- 4Nicola Willis<1%
- 5Chlöe Swarbrick<1%
- 6David Seymour<1%
- ·Others (28 outcomes)<1%
- Implied
- 57.5%
- American
- -135
- Decimal
- 1.74
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 57% — roughly -135 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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