GeoOdds

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Odds

$20.1M total volume$79K 24hResolves by October 10, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
10%implied chance
-0.3pp24h

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

last 24h

Probability over time

Current standings

  1. 1
    Volodymyr Zelenskyy10%
  2. 2
    Donald Trump8%
  3. 3
    Yulia Navalnaya8%
  4. 4
    UNRWA6%
  5. 5
    Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani4%
  6. 6
    Pope Leo XIV4%
  7. ·
    Others (65 outcomes)13%
Implied
9.8%
American
+920
Decimal
10.20
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 10% — roughly +920 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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