Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027 Odds
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | April 1, 2028 | 9% | +1011 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | April 1, 2028 | 7% | +1371 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | April 1, 2028 | 8% | +1233 |
| Pope Leo XIV | April 1, 2028 | 3% | +3179 |
| Greta Thunberg | April 1, 2028 | 2% | +5961 |
| Elon Musk | April 1, 2028 | 2% | +5456 |
| Julian Assange | April 1, 2028 | 7% | +1371 |
| António Guterres | April 1, 2028 | 3% | +3536 |
| Jimmy Lai | April 1, 2028 | 6% | +1567 |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | April 1, 2028 | 6% | +1718 |
| UNRWA | April 1, 2028 | 4% | +2226 |
| International Court of Justice | April 1, 2028 | 2% | +4551 |
| International Criminal Court | April 1, 2028 | 1% | +8991 |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | April 1, 2028 | 9% | +1056 |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | April 1, 2028 | 10% | +900 |
| Doctors Without Borders | April 1, 2028 | 2% | +4344 |
| Melania Trump | April 1, 2028 | 6% | +1654 |
- Implied
- 9%
- American
- +1011
- Decimal
- 11.11
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 9% — roughly +1011 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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