Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...? Odds
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 14 | November 15, 2026 | <1% | +14186 |
| November 21 | November 22, 2026 | 3% | +3822 |
| November 30 | December 1, 2026 | 5% | +1920 |
- Implied
- 5%
- American
- +1920
- Decimal
- 20.20
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 5% — roughly +1920 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.