São Paulo Governor Election Winner Odds
Tarcísio de Freitas
last 24h
Probability over time
Current standings
- 1Tarcísio de Freitas94%
- 2Fernando Haddad4%
- 3Erika Hilton<1%
- 4Kim Kataguiri<1%
- 5Márcio França<1%
- 6Other—
- ·Others (19 outcomes)<1%
- Implied
- 93.5%
- American
- -1438
- Decimal
- 1.07
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of São Paulo Governor Election Winner?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 94% — roughly -1438 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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