Satoshi's identity be proven by...? Odds
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | December 31, 2026 | <1% | +18082 |
| December 31 | December 31, 2026 | 4% | +2640 |
- Implied
- 0.5%
- American
- +18082
- Decimal
- 181.82
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at <1% — roughly +18082 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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