Starmer out by...? Odds
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | December 31, 2025 | <1% | — |
| May 19 | May 19, 2026 | <1% | — |
| May 31 | May 31, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 15 | June 15, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 21 | June 21, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 26 | June 22, 2026 | >99% | — |
| June 22 | June 22, 2026 | >99% | — |
| June 23 | June 23, 2026 | >99% | — |
| June 24 | June 24, 2026 | >99% | — |
| June 25 | June 25, 2026 | >99% | — |
| June 30 | June 30, 2026 | >99% | — |
| February 28 | June 30, 2026 | <1% | — |
| March 31 | June 30, 2026 | <1% | — |
| April 30 | June 30, 2026 | <1% | — |
| May 15 | June 30, 2026 | <1% | — |
| July 31 | July 31, 2026 | >99% | — |
| August 31 | July 31, 2026 | >99% | — |
| October 31 | July 31, 2026 | >99% | — |
| December 31 | December 31, 2026 | >99% | — |
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Starmer out by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at >99%. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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