GeoOdds

Texas Senate Election: Tarrant County Winner Odds

$65K total volume$4K 24hResolves by November 3, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
>99%implied chance
+8.5pp24h

James Talarico (D)

last 24h

Probability over time

Current standings

  1. 1
    James Talarico (D)>99%
  2. 2
    Ken Paxton (R)<1%
  3. 3
    Person A<1%
  4. 4
    Person B<1%
  5. 5
    Person C<1%
  6. 6
    Person D<1%
  7. ·
    Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Texas Senate Election: Tarrant County Winner?

Polymarket traders currently price this at >99%. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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