GeoOdds

Trump out as President by August 31? Odds

$1.5M total volume$92K 24hResolves by August 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
<1%implied chance
+0.1pp24h

Trump out as President by August 31?

last 24h

Probability over time

Implied
0.5%
American
+18082
Decimal
181.82
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Trump out as President by August 31?

Polymarket traders currently price this at <1% — roughly +18082 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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