Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027? Odds
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | December 31, 2026 | 9% | +1076 |
| Italy | December 31, 2026 | 19% | +441 |
| The Netherlands | December 31, 2026 | 16% | +545 |
| Japan | December 31, 2026 | 13% | +700 |
| Germany | December 31, 2026 | 7% | +1349 |
| Belgium | December 31, 2026 | 19% | +426 |
| Finland | December 31, 2026 | 14% | +641 |
| Austria | December 31, 2026 | 7% | +1251 |
| Greece | December 31, 2026 | 12% | +770 |
| New Zealand | December 31, 2026 | 23% | +335 |
- Implied
- 7.4%
- American
- +1251
- Decimal
- 13.51
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 7% — roughly +1251 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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