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Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027? Odds

$755K total volume$587 24hResolves by December 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
9%implied chance
+4.1pp24h

Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
United StatesDecember 31, 20264%+2464
ItalyDecember 31, 202617%+488
The NetherlandsDecember 31, 202622%+355
JapanDecember 31, 202611%+852
GermanyDecember 31, 20265%+2074
BelgiumDecember 31, 202626%+292
FinlandDecember 31, 202610%+900
AustriaDecember 31, 20269%+970
GreeceDecember 31, 20268%+1174
New ZealandDecember 31, 202613%+700
IsraelDecember 31, 20263%+2841
Implied
9.4%
American
+970
Decimal
10.70
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 9% — roughly +970 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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