Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027? Odds
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2603 |
| United States | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2567 |
| Italy | January 1, 2027 | 14% | +590 |
| The Netherlands | January 1, 2027 | 12% | +733 |
| Japan | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1329 |
| Germany | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +1752 |
| Belgium | January 1, 2027 | 18% | +456 |
| Finland | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1329 |
| Austria | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2339 |
| Greece | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2281 |
| New Zealand | January 1, 2027 | 9% | +1011 |
- Implied
- 4.1%
- American
- +2339
- Decimal
- 24.39
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 4% — roughly +2339 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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