Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? Odds
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oman | December 31, 2026 | 5% | +1735 |
| Kuwait | December 31, 2026 | 11% | +852 |
| Syria | December 31, 2026 | 12% | +720 |
| Lebanon | December 31, 2026 | 10% | +953 |
| Saudi Arabia | December 31, 2026 | 9% | +1076 |
| Azerbaijan | December 31, 2026 | 7% | +1251 |
| Somaliland | December 31, 2026 | 22% | +355 |
| Qatar | December 31, 2026 | 12% | +730 |
| Pakistan | December 31, 2026 | 6% | +1567 |
| Egypt | December 31, 2026 | 8% | +1216 |
| Turkey | December 31, 2026 | 5% | +1880 |
| Jordan | December 31, 2026 | 12% | +733 |
- Implied
- 8.5%
- American
- +1076
- Decimal
- 11.76
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 9% — roughly +1076 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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